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The Price of Votes: Exploring the effect of ad spending in the last presidential campaign

Can ad spending change voter’s choice for President? A new approach uses administrative data and the Understanding America Study to evaluate the ability of campaign advertisements to persuade voters.


Through the Lens of Populism: The 2016 Election

This blog discusses how populist beliefs and disagreement with evidence-based statements vary by favored presidential candidate, political party, region of the country, and who won the election.


The Hollowing Out of US Democracy

In this post, Peter Levine summarizes the discussion during his recent brown bag at CESR on “The Hollowing Out of Democracy,” including concerns about Civic Deserts and the need for more organizations with SPUD (Scale, Pluralism, Unity, Depth).


Repairing Democracy: We Can’t All Get What We Want, But Can We Avoid Getting What Most of Us *Really* Don’t Want?

This post illustrates what multicandidate open voting could look like if voters had the option to vote for one candidate, to vote against one candidate, or to rate all the different candidates in more complex ways. Data collected in the heat of the 2016 US presidential primaries suggests that the result would have been dramatically different than under the current system. (more…)

The Association between Personality Traits and Voting Intentions in the 2016 Presidential Election

Analysis of survey data shows that personality has a strong, significant association with voting intentions, even when controlling for factors such as age, race, gender, socio-economic status and prior voting behavior. (more…)

The Daybreak Presidential Poll: Voter Preference and Intensity in the 2016 Election

The USC Dornsife/LA Times “Daybreak” presidential poll has caused much controversy in the mainstream political community since its initial release. Unlike most traditional election polls, the goal of the Daybreak poll is to determine not only voter preferences in the 2016 presidential race but the intensity of those preferences by asking respondents to indicate which candidate they are likely to vote for as well as how committed (on a scale of 0-100) they are to support that candidate.  (more…)

Who is the Next President?

Nils Bohr famously said that “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”. I have this from a web-site at the University of Exeter in the UK, which has many memorable quotes about forecasting. (more…)

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