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Are We All Snobs? How Personal Tastes Affect Our Judgment of Others

Do stereotypes of “high-brow” and “low-brow” tastes affect how Americans judge one another?  This post examines whether we respond more positively to people who display high status tastes.

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The Association between Personality Traits and Voting Intentions in the 2016 Presidential Election

Analysis of survey data shows that personality has a strong, significant association with voting intentions, even when controlling for factors such as age, race, gender, socio-economic status and prior voting behavior. (more…)

The Daybreak Presidential Poll: Voter Preference and Intensity in the 2016 Election

The USC Dornsife/LA Times “Daybreak” presidential poll has caused much controversy in the mainstream political community since its initial release. Unlike most traditional election polls, the goal of the Daybreak poll is to determine not only voter preferences in the 2016 presidential race but the intensity of those preferences by asking respondents to indicate which candidate they are likely to vote for as well as how committed (on a scale of 0-100) they are to support that candidate.  (more…)

Who is the Next President?

Nils Bohr famously said that “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”. I have this from a web-site at the University of Exeter in the UK, which has many memorable quotes about forecasting. (more…)

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