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The Woes of Collecting Public Opinion: Lessons from an Outlier Election Poll.

Life lessons when academia meets the press:  What we learned from our experience moonlighting as an outlier poll during a contested election.

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Could “Shy” Trump Voters’ Discomfort With Disclosing Candidate Choice Have Skewed Telephone Polls? Evidence from the USC Election Poll

We analysed data from the USC Dornsife/ LA Time 2016 Election Daybreak Poll on respondents’ comfort levels with disclosing presidential candidate choice to friends, family, acquaintances, and pollsters. Results are consistent with a “shy” or “hidden” voter effect. (more…)

Can asking about people’s social circles inform election predictions?

Asking people about how their social circles will vote, as in the 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll, might help to predict people’s voting behavior.

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The Association between Personality Traits and Voting Intentions in the 2016 Presidential Election

Analysis of survey data shows that personality has a strong, significant association with voting intentions, even when controlling for factors such as age, race, gender, socio-economic status and prior voting behavior. (more…)

The Daybreak Presidential Poll: Voter Preference and Intensity in the 2016 Election

The USC Dornsife/LA Times “Daybreak” presidential poll has caused much controversy in the mainstream political community since its initial release. Unlike most traditional election polls, the goal of the Daybreak poll is to determine not only voter preferences in the 2016 presidential race but the intensity of those preferences by asking respondents to indicate which candidate they are likely to vote for as well as how committed (on a scale of 0-100) they are to support that candidate.  (more…)

What the candidates don’t get about drug prices

If you are like me, you are watching with relish the presidential debates on both the Republican and Democratic side. Sometimes, amid the reality show-type theatrics, they actually substantive discussions about issues like Social Security, (more…)

Who is the Next President?

Nils Bohr famously said that “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”. I have this from a web-site at the University of Exeter in the UK, which has many memorable quotes about forecasting. (more…)

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